Syrian Air Il-76 Descends Rapidly, Possibly Shot Down

Geopolitics and aviation are two of my great interests, so I’m always fascinated when the two subjects intersect.

That happened a few hours ago when a Syrian Air Ilyushin Il-76 descended rapidly after a potential mid-air explosion. There were unverified reports that the plane was carrying former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, but those have since been debunked. The flight data is still pretty interesting, so let’s take a look.

Flight data

At 5 AM local time, around the same time that senior Syrian military officials told Reuters that Assad had boarded a plane to flee Syria, a Syrian Air Ilyushin Il-76 flew east out of Damascus for around 10 minutes before turning northwest.

Just north of the rebel-controlled Syrian city of Homs, the plane began a rapid descent from just over 12,000 feet to 3,500 feet within minutes. The Flightradar24 altitude data from that period points to a potential mid-air explosion. I’m not an expert by any means, but I’ll try to explain why as best I can.

In short, altitude is calculated based on atmospheric pressure readings (since air pressure decreases predictably with altitude). Explosions release a rapid shock wave that causes a sharp increase in localized air pressure. If this occurs inside or near an aircraft, the altimeter—designed to measure pressure changes—could register this as a spike in barometric altitude, even though the aircraft’s actual position remains unchanged.

The sharp downward spike you see around 2:30 is a perfect example of this phenomenon, and the fact that the aircraft’s ground speed plummeted in tandem with its altitude further supports an abrupt, potentially violent event mid-air incident.

A Caveat

First, it’s important to keep in mind the possibility of spoofing. Flight tracking systems like Flightradar24 rely on ADS-B signals, which can be manipulated. That is, the apparent barometric altitude spike and rapid descent could be artificially generated to simulate a catastrophic event. Without corroboration from independent sources or wreckage analysis, we can’t know for sure what happened.

Either way, the flight data is intriguing. Geopolitics and aviation intersect in fascinating ways, and this incident, whether a legitimate event or a carefully orchestrated ruse, is no exception.

I’ll be following this carefully as more information comes to light.